Alabama @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

9-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

5-6 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

ALA -7

Push

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 27–20 AUB

✓ ALA (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -6

CloseALA -7

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -6

1 → ALA

CloseALA -7

1 pt toward Alabama

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -6 · closed ALA -7 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel ALA -8

model ALA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (142 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (266 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -6

CloseALA -7

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 7-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 27–20; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 6.2; 46.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	TEX @ MSST 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	45–38	L	O48.5
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	OU @ SC 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	26–7	W	U43
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	6–24	L	U47.5
Very close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-4	41–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLWLW	7-4	64%	1-3	6-4
AUB LWLLW	4-7	36%	1-5	3-4

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA UOUUU	5-6	45%	9-2
AUB UOUOO	4-7	36%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
AUB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ALA 2–0 AUB ALA leads · 2 games since 2023 · ALA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Auburn 14 @ Alabama 28	ALA -10.5	ALA W
Nov 25 2023	Alabama 27 @ Auburn 24	ALA -13.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+21.6▲ 0.6#6

AUB+11.0 →+11.8▲ 0.8#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ALA

Longer bar = better

AUB

#30

Offense

◀ ALA better

#68

#16

Defense

◀ ALA better

#32

+0.5 #29

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+1.0 #9

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ ALA faster

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #23	20.1 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #42	5.06 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.02 #35	Even
Success rate	46% #30	39% #30	Even

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	AUB off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #74	16.2 #11	ALA
Yards / play	5.50 #85	4.78 #17	ALA
PPA / play	+0.15 #53	−0.02 #20	ALA
Success rate	44% #58	37% #16	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	7.3 #34	12.8 #6	20.1 #11	5.8 #77	7.9 #42	13.7 #52
AUB allowed	3.0 #19	6.6 #49	9.6 #22	4.8 #49	4.5 #25	9.3 #29

AUB scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.6 #50	8.3 #72	14.9 #64	5.5 #82	6.9 #65	12.5 #70
ALA allowed	3.1 #24	4.9 #14	8.0 #10	4.5 #41	3.7 #13	8.2 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.