UCLA @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

UCLA

3-8 · Power #70

final

Final

USC

8-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -21.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 18–40 USC

✓ USC (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -22.5

CloseUSC -21.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -22.5

1 → UCLA

CloseUSC -21.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open59.5

no move

Close59.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -22.5 · closed USC -21.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel USC -23

model USC -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 46% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (312 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -22.5

CloseUSC -21.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 21.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 29–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.1 against an average line of 21.7; 59.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Very close	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	MIA vs FSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	36–14	L	U55
Close	ORE vs MD 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-24	39–18	L	U58
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	BOIS vs ORST 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	34–18	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LLLLL	3-8	27%	2-3	3-4
USC WLWLL	5-6	45%	4-2	4-5

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UOOOO	6-5	55%	3-8
USC UUOUO	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
USC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UCLA 34–54 USC (7 tied) USC leads · 95 games since 1929 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	USC 19 @ UCLA 13	USC -4.5	USC W
Nov 18 2023	UCLA 38 @ USC 20	USC -5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →−0.8▼ 6.1#70

USC+14.0 →+18.1▲ 4.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UCLA

Longer bar = better

USC

#99

Offense

USC better ▶

#122

Defense

USC better ▶

#79

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+0.3 #46

61 plays #127

Pace

USC faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #122	23.5 #59	USC
Yards / play	5.25 #104	5.64 #74	USC
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	+0.07 #58	USC
Success rate	42% #79	46% #123	UCLA

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #12	33.8 #127	USC
Yards / play	7.22 #4	5.99 #107	USC
PPA / play	+0.29 #10	+0.20 #118	USC
Success rate	50% #7	50% #136	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	1.8 #134	6.2 #107	8.0 #129	5.8 #77	5.1 #113	10.9 #98
USC allowed	5.9 #84	7.5 #72	13.5 #79	5.8 #81	4.3 #21	10.1 #41

USC scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	7.8 #28	10.5 #28	18.4 #21	9.5 #9	9.4 #20	18.8 #7
UCLA allowed	7.4 #111	10.5 #126	17.9 #123	7.0 #107	8.9 #122	15.9 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.