Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Tue, Nov 25, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

7-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-7 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

WMU -7

✓ WMU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 28–21 EMU

✓ WMU (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -7.5

CloseWMU -7

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -7.5

0.5 → EMU

CloseWMU -7

0.5 pts toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -7.5 · closed WMU -7 · moved 0.5 toward EMUmodel WMU -7.5

model WMU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (136 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -7.5

CloseWMU -7

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 7-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 31–21; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 6.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	10–7	L	U47
Very close	LT @ KENN 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	7–35	L	U46.5
Very close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	LT @ DEL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	24–25	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLLWW	8-3	73%	3-2	5-1
EMU WLWWW	7-4	64%	4-1	5-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UOOUO	5-6	45%	7-4
EMU UOUUU	5-6	45%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 601 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
EMU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WMU 2–0 EMU WMU leads · 2 games since 2023 · WMU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Eastern Michigan 18 @ Western Michigan 26	WMU -6.5	WMU W
Oct 28 2023	Western Michigan 45 @ Eastern Michigan 21	WMU -3	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.1 →−5.0▲ 5.1#85

EMU−11.0 →−14.0▼ 3.0#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WMU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#93

Offense

EMU better ▶

#75

#20

Defense

◀ WMU better

#111

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #72

67 plays #70

Pace

Even

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #104	29.6 #104	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #122	6.27 #121	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.21 #124	WMU
Success rate	44% #51	44% #96	WMU

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	EMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #90	18.5 #16	WMU
Yards / play	5.57 #77	4.83 #20	WMU
PPA / play	+0.14 #57	0.00 #22	WMU
Success rate	42% #76	38% #21	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.2 #136	9.2 #57	10.4 #112	5.8 #71	6.5 #73	12.4 #72
EMU allowed	7.6 #115	7.5 #73	15.1 #97	5.6 #70	8.3 #113	13.9 #100

EMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.5 #81	7.7 #84	13.2 #86	1.9 #135	8.7 #30	10.6 #101
WMU allowed	4.3 #45	4.3 #8	8.5 #15	3.3 #20	6.1 #59	9.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.