Kent State @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff28°F10 mphgusts 23DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kent State

4-7 · Power #132

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

3-8 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

NIU -4.5

✓ KENT W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 20–25 NIU

✗ NIU (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNIU -5.5

CloseNIU -4.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -5.5

1 → KENT

CloseNIU -4.5

1 pt toward Kent State

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -5.5 · closed NIU -4.5 · moved 1 toward KENTmodel NIU -9.5

model NIU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (222 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (304 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNIU -5.5

CloseNIU -4.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 4.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KENT won 35–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 4.9; 40.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	16–19	L	U47.5
Very close	FIU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	34–13	W	O43.5
Very close	UTEP vs NMSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	31–34	L	O44.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Very close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	21–7	W	U42
Very close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6	17–13	L	U46
Very close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	14–10	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LWLWL	5-5	50%	2-4	4-5
NIU LWLWL	3-8	27%	1-4	2-2

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OUUOU	5-5	50%	4-7
NIU OUOOO	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 404 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENT 0–1 NIU NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Northern Illinois 37 @ Kent State 27	NIU -20.5	KENT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−26.4 →−20.3▲ 6.1#133

NIU−5.3 →−14.5▼ 9.2#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

KENT

Longer bar = better

NIU

#126

Offense

Even

#133

#98

Defense

NIU better ▶

#75

−0.2 #88

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

+0.1 #66

58 plays #137

Pace

Even

62 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	KENT off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #120	23.4 #60	NIU
Yards / play	4.88 #124	5.22 #46	NIU
PPA / play	−0.01 #126	+0.14 #93	NIU
Success rate	35% #132	44% #100	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: KENT defense

	NIU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #131	33.8 #125	Even
Yards / play	4.57 #134	5.88 #100	KENT
PPA / play	−0.06 #130	+0.15 #96	KENT
Success rate	32% #137	42% #71	KENT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.1 #109	3.4 #134	7.5 #131	6.4 #53	5.5 #98	11.9 #83
NIU allowed	3.1 #25	7.5 #73	10.5 #32	4.7 #46	8.1 #113	12.8 #87

NIU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	4.8 #97	4.4 #125	9.2 #121	3.6 #118	3.0 #135	6.6 #134
KENT allowed	8.5 #128	10.4 #120	18.8 #129	7.9 #124	7.1 #88	15.0 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.