Akron @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Tue, Nov 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F8 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

4-7 · Power #127

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

3-7 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

BGSU -2.5

✓ AKR W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 21–24 BGSU

✗ BGSU (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -5.5

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -5.5

3 → AKR

CloseBGSU -2.5

3 pts toward Akron

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -5.5 · closed BGSU -2.5 · moved 3 toward AKRmodel BGSU -6.5

model BGSU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 53% (305 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -5.5

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 19–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 2.7; 48.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	BGSU vs CMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–27	L	U43.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Very close	NEV vs AFA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	19–22	L	U44.5
Very close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	20–21	L	U48
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Close	RICE vs UAB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	24–17	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LLWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	3-5
BGSU WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	0-4

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UOUOO	6-5	55%	4-7
BGSU OUUUU	4-6	40%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AKR 10–21 BGSU BGSU leads · 31 games since 1985 · AKR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Bowling Green 27 @ Akron 20	BGSU -16.5	AKR W
Oct 21 2023	Akron 14 @ Bowling Green 41	BGSU -7	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−17.2▼ 3.7#128

BGSU−4.2 →−13.4▼ 9.2#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

AKR

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#110

Offense

◀ AKR better

#128

#80

Defense

Even

#82

+0.4 #37

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

0.0 #70

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ AKR faster

63 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	AKR off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #105	25.8 #79	BGSU
Yards / play	5.08 #114	5.81 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.13 #85	BGSU
Success rate	39% #110	42% #69	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	BGSU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #124	28.5 #96	AKR
Yards / play	4.77 #128	6.04 #113	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.07 #60	AKR
Success rate	35% #129	40% #50	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.0 #90	7.5 #87	12.5 #92	5.0 #84	5.1 #110	10.1 #110
BGSU allowed	5.9 #82	7.6 #76	13.5 #80	7.8 #119	4.5 #26	12.3 #73

BGSU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	4.0 #116	4.7 #122	8.7 #124	3.0 #129	6.8 #64	9.8 #114
AKR allowed	6.6 #99	8.2 #90	14.8 #96	7.2 #113	5.8 #52	13.0 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.