Florida State @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Fri, Nov 21, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida State

5-5 · Power #23

final

Final

NC State

5-5 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -6.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 34–27 NCSU

✗ FSU (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -3.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -3.5

3 → FSU

CloseFSU -6.5

3 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -3.5 · closed FSU -6.5 · moved 3 toward FSUmodel FSU -8.5

model FSU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (164 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (234 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -3.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 21–11 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 6.9; 56.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	UVA @ CAL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	31–21	W	U52.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LLWLW	5-5	50%	0-3	4-3
NCSU WLLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	1-4

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OUUUU	5-5	50%	5-5
NCSU OUOOU	6-4	60%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 43 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NCSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU0.0 →+12.7▲ 12.7#22

NCSU+0.7 →+2.5▲ 1.8#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

FSU

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#22

Offense

◀ FSU better

#44

#46

Defense

◀ FSU better

#106

0.0 #82

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

−0.4 #103

71 plays #22

Pace

◀ FSU faster

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #17	31.6 #119	FSU
Yards / play	6.83 #15	6.36 #128	FSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	+0.23 #128	FSU
Success rate	46% #31	40% #47	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #56	20.3 #31	FSU
Yards / play	6.39 #28	4.95 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #34	+0.07 #61	NCSU
Success rate	43% #58	41% #62	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.3 #34	12.4 #8	19.7 #14	8.0 #28	8.4 #34	16.4 #24
NCSU allowed	7.9 #117	9.9 #113	17.8 #124	8.0 #123	5.8 #48	13.8 #100

NCSU scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.0 #23	9.6 #50	17.6 #34	6.9 #46	5.4 #101	12.3 #72
FSU allowed	4.6 #53	5.5 #28	10.1 #30	4.1 #35	5.0 #37	9.1 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.