Louisville @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

7-3 · Power #25

final

Final

SMU

7-3 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -3.5

✓ SMU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 25–29 SMU

✓ SMU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -3.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -3.5

no move

CloseSMU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -3.5 · unchangedmodel SMU -1.5

model SMU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (302 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -3.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 3.5-point home favorite against LOU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 2.8; 51.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Very close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	23–0	W	U47
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLWLL	3-7	30%	3-0	1-0
SMU WWLWW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: LOU away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU UOUOU	5-5	50%	7-3
SMU UOUUO	3-7	30%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SMU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 0–1 SMU SMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	SMU 34 @ Louisville 27	LOU -6.5	SMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+11.2 →+10.6▼ 0.6#26

SMU+12.5 →+9.0▼ 3.5#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LOU

Longer bar = better

SMU

#55

Offense

Even

#56

#18

Defense

Even

#31

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+1.1 #5

66 plays #75

Pace

Even

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	LOU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #45	20.4 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #42	5.19 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #79	−0.09 #7	SMU
Success rate	44% #54	40% #43	Even

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	SMU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #39	21.5 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #35	4.64 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #55	−0.11 #6	LOU
Success rate	41% #96	36% #12	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.3 #34	9.0 #64	16.3 #46	6.8 #49	7.8 #41	14.6 #43
SMU allowed	2.7 #15	6.4 #44	9.1 #19	3.0 #18	7.3 #96	10.3 #47

SMU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	5.4 #83	10.2 #40	15.6 #58	6.5 #52	8.8 #28	15.3 #32
LOU allowed	6.3 #95	5.8 #30	12.1 #59	3.6 #25	4.6 #29	8.2 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.