Minnesota @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

6-4 · Power #69

final

Final

Northwestern

5-5 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -4.5

✓ MINN W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 18–23 NU

✓ NU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -3.5

CloseNU -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -3.5

1 → NU

CloseNU -4.5

1 pt toward Northwestern

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -3.5 · closed NU -4.5 · moved 1 toward NUmodel NU -4.5 matches the line

model NU -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (216 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -3.5

CloseNU -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 4.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 38–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 4.1; 53.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Very close	NU vs PUR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	19–0	W	U47
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWLLL	1-8	11%	0-4	1-3
NU WWWLW	7-3	70%	5-1	3-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUOUO	6-4	60%	6-4
NU UUOOO	5-5	50%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 216 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	1-8 11%	6-4 60%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 NU NU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Minnesota 34 @ Northwestern 37	MINN -12	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+8.6 →+0.1▼ 8.5#66

NU−2.5 →+2.0▲ 4.5#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MINN

Longer bar = better

#104

Offense

Even

#93

#88

Defense

Even

#75

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

0.0 #81

61 plays #128

Pace

NU faster ▶

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	MINN off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #105	19.6 #23	NU
Yards / play	4.94 #119	5.70 #83	NU
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	40% #103	44% #108	Even

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #110	23.6 #64	MINN
Yards / play	5.37 #92	5.50 #66	MINN
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.16 #103	Even
Success rate	43% #66	45% #117	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.5 #99	8.4 #71	12.9 #89	4.4 #106	4.8 #116	9.2 #120
NU allowed	3.5 #34	6.1 #34	9.6 #24	5.5 #69	4.5 #27	10.0 #43

NU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.4 #106	6.8 #98	11.2 #106	4.6 #101	6.1 #82	10.7 #96
MINN allowed	6.2 #91	7.5 #75	13.7 #83	4.1 #35	5.5 #43	9.6 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.