Michigan State @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F5 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

3-5 · Power #67

final

Final

Minnesota

5-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -5.5

✓ MSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 20–26 MINN

✓ MINN (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -5.5

CloseMINN -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -5.5

no move

CloseMINN -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -5.5 · unchangedmodel MINN -6.5

model MINN -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (167 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -5.5

CloseMINN -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 5.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 4.9; 55.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	NU vs PUR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	19–0	W	U47
Very close	RUTG vs UCLA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.25	32–35	L	O42.5
Very close	WASH vs UCLA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	31–19	W	O47
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WWLWW	4-4	50%	3-0	4-0
MINN LLLWL	1-6	14%	1-3	0-4

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOUOO	6-2	75%	3-5
MINN OOUUO	5-3	63%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 26. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MINN	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSU 0–1 MINN MINN leads · 1 game since 2023 · MINN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Michigan State 12 @ Minnesota 27	MINN -6.5	MINN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.3 →−1.8▼ 2.1#73

MINN+8.6 →+1.3▼ 7.3#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MSU

Longer bar = better

MINN

#97

Offense

Even

#98

#119

Defense

MINN better ▶

#55

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.3 #55

64 plays #106

Pace

◀ MSU faster

62 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	MSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #78	21.8 #48	MINN
Yards / play	5.21 #103	4.97 #30	MINN
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.09 #65	MINN
Success rate	41% #96	42% #78	Even

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #96	32.5 #118	MINN
Yards / play	5.12 #109	6.11 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.21 #121	MINN
Success rate	41% #93	47% #124	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.8 #96	6.9 #98	11.6 #106	6.8 #57	6.0 #83	12.8 #69
MINN allowed	6.0 #81	7.6 #80	13.6 #78	3.4 #26	4.8 #33	8.1 #18

MINN scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.8 #96	9.4 #55	14.1 #77	4.6 #96	5.1 #101	9.8 #111
MSU allowed	6.8 #100	8.8 #96	15.5 #100	8.3 #122	7.1 #85	15.4 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.