Michigan @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan

5-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

3-4 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

MICH -13.5

✓ MSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 31–17 MSU

✓ MICH (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -13.5

CloseMICH -13.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -13.5

no move

CloseMICH -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -13.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -16.5

model MICH -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 45% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -13.5

CloseMICH -13.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 13.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 31–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 13.4; 50.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5
Very close	AUB @ VAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	31–15	W	U49.5
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	TEX @ UK 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	16–13	L	U45.5
Close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	42–7	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-2
MSU LWWLW	3-4	43%	0-4	3-0

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OOUUU	3-4	43%	5-2
MSU OOOUO	5-2	71%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 483 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MICH 75–38 MSU (5 tied) MICH leads · 118 games since 1898 · MICH has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Michigan State 17 @ Michigan 24	MICH -3.5	MICH W
Oct 21 2023	Michigan 49 @ Michigan State 0	MICH -25.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+15.1▲ 2.9#17

MSU+0.3 →−2.2▼ 2.5#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MICH

Longer bar = better

MSU

#49

Offense

◀ MICH better

#93

#46

Defense

◀ MICH better

#124

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−0.4 #103

63 plays #111

Pace

Even

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #70	32.7 #122	MICH
Yards / play	6.62 #26	6.20 #120	MICH
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.23 #126	MICH
Success rate	44% #61	48% #129	MICH

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #77	17.0 #17	MICH
Yards / play	5.37 #97	4.74 #23	MICH
PPA / play	+0.06 #108	+0.04 #43	MICH
Success rate	42% #91	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.4 #43	6.9 #98	14.3 #76	7.7 #33	6.7 #75	14.4 #48
MSU allowed	6.3 #90	10.0 #115	16.3 #114	7.4 #115	7.1 #85	14.6 #115

MSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.4 #81	6.9 #98	12.3 #98	7.7 #33	5.0 #103	12.7 #71
MICH allowed	3.0 #25	7.3 #77	10.3 #41	3.0 #22	3.7 #14	6.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.