UCLA @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

3-4 · Power #70

final

Final

Indiana

7-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -27.5

✓ IU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 12–40 IU

✓ IU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -24.5

CloseIU -27.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -24.5

3 → IU

CloseIU -27.5

3 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -24.5 · closed IU -27.5 · moved 3 toward IUmodel IU -28

model IU -28

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -24.5

CloseIU -27.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 27.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 56–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29 against an average line of 27.3; 51.6 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs MSST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	33–14	L	U61.5
Very close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	ORE vs CAL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	63–19	W	O61.5
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Close	AUB vs USA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-26.5	31–15	L	U56
Close	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LWWWL	3-4	43%	2-1	3-1
IU –WLWL	3-3	50%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4
IU OOUUO	4-3	57%	7-0

Went over in Q3. Of 510 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
IU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCLA 0–1 IU IU leads · 1 game since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Indiana 42 @ UCLA 13	IU -3.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →+0.6▼ 4.7#65

IU+13.4 →+22.3▲ 8.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UCLA

Longer bar = better

#73

Offense

IU better ▶

#105

Defense

IU better ▶

−0.1 #90

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.0 #10

64 plays #102

Pace

IU faster ▶

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	UCLA off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #106	11.6 #4	IU
Yards / play	5.68 #73	4.48 #14	IU
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	−0.05 #13	IU
Success rate	45% #45	33% #6	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	43.9 #4	27.4 #94	IU
Yards / play	7.24 #8	5.71 #90	IU
PPA / play	+0.31 #11	+0.16 #103	IU
Success rate	54% #3	48% #131	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	2.9 #128	8.3 #77	11.1 #108	5.7 #74	5.6 #90	11.3 #92
IU allowed	3.9 #35	3.7 #10	7.6 #15	0.9 #1	3.1 #9	4.0 #1

IU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	11.4 #6	11.7 #24	23.1 #9	12.4 #3	8.3 #44	20.7 #5
UCLA allowed	6.7 #100	6.7 #60	13.4 #78	4.0 #42	10.0 #132	14.0 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.