Boise State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Fri, Oct 24, 2025, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

5-2 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

1-6 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

BOIS -20.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 36–15 NEV

✓ BOIS (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -21.5

CloseBOIS -20.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -21.5

1 → NEV

CloseBOIS -20.5

1 pt toward Nevada

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -21.5 · closed BOIS -20.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel BOIS -22

model BOIS -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -21.5

CloseBOIS -20.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 20.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 19.6; 47.2 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-22	17–13	L	U54
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	FSU @ STAN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	13–20	L	U55.5
Close	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-17	35–17	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWWWW	6-1	86%	2-1	5-1
NEV LLWLW	3-4	43%	0-3	3-2

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OOUOO	5-2	71%	5-2
NEV UUUOU	2-5	29%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NEV	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BOIS 20–6 NEV BOIS leads · 26 games since 1993 · BOIS has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Nevada 21 @ Boise State 28	BOIS -23.5	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+6.0 →+7.4▲ 1.4#38

NEV−9.7 →−16.6▼ 6.9#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BOIS

Longer bar = better

NEV

#36

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#131

#59

Defense

◀ BOIS better

#103

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

◀ BOIS better

−1.3 #134

73 plays #23

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

61 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #21	28.0 #98	BOIS
Yards / play	6.59 #27	5.72 #91	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.23 #31	+0.17 #104	BOIS
Success rate	44% #64	46% #119	BOIS

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	NEV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	15.6 #134	26.1 #84	BOIS
Yards / play	4.93 #121	5.71 #88	BOIS
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.06 #46	BOIS
Success rate	36% #131	37% #19	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	11.3 #7	7.9 #82	19.1 #27	7.7 #39	10.0 #18	17.7 #20
NEV allowed	5.9 #79	10.7 #119	16.6 #114	5.4 #75	6.0 #59	11.4 #65

NEV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	1.3 #136	6.4 #105	7.7 #128	2.4 #133	5.4 #94	7.9 #126
BOIS allowed	2.3 #16	10.6 #118	12.9 #74	5.9 #85	7.4 #89	13.3 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.