Fresno State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Fresno State

5-3 · Power #82

▲ winner

Final

Boise State

6-2 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

BOIS -17.5

✓ FRES W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 14–33 BOIS

✗ BOIS (90%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -17.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -17.5

no move

CloseBOIS -17.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 4

Close47.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -17.5 · unchangedmodel BOIS -21

model BOIS -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 51% (118 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -17.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 17.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: FRES won 30–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 16.9; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	38–21	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WLLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-2
BOIS WWWWW	7-1	88%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUUOU	4-4	50%	5-3
BOIS OUOOU	5-3	63%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BOIS	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 1–0 BOIS FRES leads · 1 game since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Boise State 30 @ Fresno State 37	FRES -2.5	FRES W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.5 →−8.2▼ 3.7#100

BOIS+6.0 →+7.0▲ 1.0#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FRES

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#79

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#46

#74

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#47

−0.4 #103

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.6 #29

64 plays #101

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	FRES off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #83	23.3 #59	BOIS
Yards / play	5.64 #71	5.58 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.03 #38	BOIS
Success rate	44% #58	36% #16	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #28	23.6 #61	BOIS
Yards / play	6.27 #34	5.23 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #44	+0.13 #92	BOIS
Success rate	43% #76	43% #91	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	4.8 #96	9.8 #48	14.5 #73	4.4 #105	6.8 #72	11.1 #91
BOIS allowed	2.4 #14	9.3 #104	11.6 #57	5.1 #64	6.5 #69	11.6 #66

BOIS scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	10.3 #10	7.8 #81	18.0 #34	7.6 #33	9.6 #20	17.3 #18
FRES allowed	6.4 #90	8.6 #94	15.0 #92	3.3 #22	5.4 #48	8.6 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.