Boise State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boise State

6-3 · Power #55

final

Final

San Diego State

7-2 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -2.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 23–24 SDSU

✓ SDSU (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -2.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -2.5

no move

CloseSDSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▲ 2

Close43.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BOIS -3

model BOIS -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (303 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -2.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 17–7; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 43.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 2.7; 55.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs COLO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-4	36–20	W	O45.5
Close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	BC vs PITT 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	34–23	W	O50.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	63–27	W	O47.5
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	20–9	W	U43
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	26–41	L	O48
Close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWWWL	7-2	78%	3-1	1-0
SDSU WWWWL	6-2	75%	3-0	5-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UOOUU	5-4	56%	6-3
SDSU OOUUU	3-6	33%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
SDSU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BOIS 2–0 SDSU BOIS leads · 2 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2024	San Diego State 24 @ Boise State 56	BOIS -24.5	BOIS W
Sep 22 2023	Boise State 34 @ San Diego State 31	BOIS -5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+6.0 →+4.2▼ 1.8#51

SDSU−12.0 →−1.3▲ 10.7#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BOIS

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#63

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#78

#44

Defense

SDSU better ▶

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.3 #38

72 plays #20

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	BOIS off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #42	13.1 #4	SDSU
Yards / play	5.96 #52	4.03 #4	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #59	−0.15 #2	SDSU
Success rate	41% #97	31% #2	SDSU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	SDSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #75	24.0 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #77	5.30 #55	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	+0.03 #38	BOIS
Success rate	43% #69	36% #15	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.1 #13	7.7 #85	16.8 #43	6.8 #52	8.6 #33	15.3 #32
SDSU allowed	3.4 #32	3.6 #6	7.0 #9	2.7 #10	3.4 #10	6.1 #6

SDSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	6.6 #59	9.2 #60	15.8 #56	5.2 #80	5.3 #104	10.6 #104
BOIS allowed	2.9 #22	8.6 #97	11.4 #50	6.1 #93	6.4 #67	12.6 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.