San José State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

San José State

3-7 · Power #106

final

Final

San Diego State

8-2 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -9.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 21–31 SDSU

✓ SDSU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -11.5

CloseSDSU -9.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -11.5

2 → SJSU

CloseSDSU -9.5

2 pts toward San José State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -11.5 · closed SDSU -9.5 · moved 2 toward SJSUmodel SDSU -13

model SDSU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 45% (142 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (207 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -11.5

CloseSDSU -9.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 25–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 10.4; 45.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–19	W	U57
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	31–13	W	U57.5
Close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Close	HOU vs WVU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	35–45	L	O48.5
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7	7–33	L	U49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LLWLL	4-6	40%	2-3	2-1
SDSU WWWLW	7-2	78%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUOUO	6-4	60%	3-7
SDSU OUUUU	3-7	30%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SDSU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 1–0 SDSU SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	San Diego State 13 @ San José State 24	SJSU -16	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−6.2 →−9.2▼ 3.0#102

SDSU−12.0 →+0.1▲ 12.1#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SJSU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#53

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#81

#110

Defense

SDSU better ▶

−0.9 #128

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.3 #40

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	SJSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #94	12.5 #4	SDSU
Yards / play	6.44 #25	4.08 #4	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #48	−0.13 #4	SDSU
Success rate	45% #44	32% #4	SDSU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU offense

	SDSU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #82	32.4 #122	SDSU
Yards / play	5.53 #79	6.16 #117	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.20 #120	SDSU
Success rate	42% #80	43% #82	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.4 #108	9.6 #50	14.0 #76	5.1 #89	4.9 #117	10.0 #112
SDSU allowed	3.1 #26	3.9 #6	7.0 #8	2.4 #8	3.1 #5	5.5 #4

SDSU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.9 #71	9.7 #47	15.6 #56	4.7 #99	5.1 #111	9.8 #115
SJSU allowed	7.3 #108	9.8 #113	17.1 #118	5.2 #58	10.1 #133	15.3 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.