San Diego State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F3 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

9-2 · Power #68

final

Final

New Mexico

8-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -1.5

✓ UNM W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 23–23 UNM

✗ SDSU (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -1.5

no move

CloseSDSU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel UNM -2.5

model UNM -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (157 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNM won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 2.5; 44.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Very close	LIB @ SHSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–20	L	U47.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WWLWW	8-2	80%	3-2	7-1
UNM LWWLW	6-5	55%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UUUUU	3-8	27%	9-2
UNM UUOUU	5-6	45%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
UNM	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 UNM UNM leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2024	New Mexico 21 @ San Diego State 16	SDSU -1.5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →0.0▲ 12.0#66

UNM−13.7 →−3.2▲ 10.5#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

SDSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#84

Offense

UNM better ▶

#61

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#53

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.6 #119

63 plays #113

Pace

Even

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	SDSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #82	23.0 #58	UNM
Yards / play	5.41 #89	5.33 #55	UNM
PPA / play	+0.08 #84	+0.05 #53	UNM
Success rate	42% #79	40% #46	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	UNM off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #63	11.6 #2	SDSU
Yards / play	5.96 #49	4.03 #3	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #66	−0.13 #4	SDSU
Success rate	43% #66	33% #5	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	6.4 #62	9.5 #52	15.8 #52	4.3 #109	5.3 #105	9.5 #117
UNM allowed	3.7 #35	8.6 #95	12.4 #64	4.8 #48	5.8 #49	10.6 #49

UNM scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.5 #105	12.0 #12	16.5 #45	3.3 #125	8.6 #31	11.9 #85
SDSU allowed	2.8 #18	3.8 #6	6.6 #6	2.2 #7	2.8 #4	5.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.