New Mexico @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

7-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

3-7 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

UNM -3.5

✓ UNM W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 31–28 AFA

✓ UNM (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -3.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -2.5

1 → UNM

CloseUNM -3.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open58.5

▼ 5

Close53.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -2.5 · closed UNM -3.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNM -0.5

model UNM -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (211 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -3.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 3.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNM won 20–3; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 9.7 against an average line of 3.1; 59.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	RICE @ LT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	42–41	L	O57
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	ODU @ APP 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–28	L	U58
Very close	USM @ ARST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	27–21	L	U54.5
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	27–34	L	O51.5
Close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Close	DEL @ JXST 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	25–38	L	O55.5
Close	UNC @ BC 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–41	L	O50.5
Close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-1	19–47	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LLWWL	5-5	50%	3-2	2-3
AFA WLLWL	4-6	40%	1-4	3-3

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUUOU	5-5	50%	7-3
AFA OUUUU	6-4	60%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
AFA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 1–0 AFA UNM leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Air Force 37 @ New Mexico 52	UNM -6.5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−4.7▲ 9.0#83

AFA−8.0 →−8.3▼ 0.3#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UNM

Longer bar = better

AFA

#61

Offense

AFA better ▶

#31

#64

Defense

◀ UNM better

#133

−0.9 #129

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

0.0 #73

64 plays #107

Pace

AFA faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #56	32.3 #121	UNM
Yards / play	6.04 #44	7.42 #136	UNM
PPA / play	+0.12 #68	+0.38 #137	UNM
Success rate	43% #74	50% #136	UNM

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #46	25.0 #72	AFA
Yards / play	6.25 #33	5.56 #66	AFA
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.08 #65	AFA
Success rate	48% #23	40% #53	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.2 #108	12.2 #9	16.4 #44	3.6 #119	9.2 #25	12.8 #63
AFA allowed	6.8 #99	5.0 #18	11.8 #56	8.5 #126	12.0 #136	20.5 #136

AFA scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.5 #82	6.7 #102	12.2 #94	6.9 #47	12.2 #1	19.1 #9
UNM allowed	4.1 #43	9.5 #106	13.6 #83	5.3 #60	6.1 #59	11.4 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.