Liberty @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

4-5 · Power #104

final

Final

Florida International

4-5 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -4.5

✓ FIU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 27–23 FIU

✗ LIB (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -4.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -2.5

2 → LIB

CloseLIB -4.5

2 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -2.5 · closed LIB -4.5 · moved 2 toward LIBmodel LIB -1

model LIB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (144 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (103 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -4.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 4.5-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: FIU won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 3.9; 58.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	KENN @ FIU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	45–26	W	O48.5
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WWLWL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-5
FIU LWLLW	5-4	56%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UUOOU	3-6	33%	4-5
FIU OUOUO	4-5	44%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 557 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
FIU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LIB 3–1 FIU LIB leads · 4 games since 2020 · FIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2024	Florida International 24 @ Liberty 31	LIB -15.5	FIU W
Sep 23 2023	Liberty 38 @ Florida International 6	LIB -10	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−9.9▼ 4.2#106

FIU−11.4 →−12.9▼ 1.5#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LIB

Longer bar = better

FIU

#82

Offense

Even

#85

#65

Defense

◀ LIB better

#87

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #91

67 plays #56

Pace

FIU faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #100	29.9 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #81	6.03 #112	LIB
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.09 #68	Even
Success rate	43% #60	40% #59	Even

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #79	22.4 #57	LIB
Yards / play	5.62 #71	5.50 #70	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	+0.09 #66	LIB
Success rate	41% #99	41% #66	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	3.8 #117	7.1 #92	10.9 #108	4.9 #95	7.6 #49	12.4 #70
FIU allowed	7.2 #108	9.3 #104	16.6 #117	6.1 #94	7.2 #93	13.3 #94

FIU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	4.6 #98	9.1 #59	13.7 #78	5.9 #70	6.4 #75	12.3 #72
LIB allowed	1.8 #4	6.3 #44	8.1 #15	5.9 #87	8.4 #116	14.3 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.