North Carolina @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

4-5 · Power #89

final

Final

Wake Forest

6-3 · Power #53

▲ winner

Closing spread

WAKE -3.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 17–22 WAKE

✓ WAKE (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -6.5

CloseWAKE -3.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -6.5

3 → UNC

CloseWAKE -3.5

3 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open38.5

▼ 1

Close37.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -6.5 · closed WAKE -3.5 · moved 3 toward UNCmodel WAKE -9.5

model WAKE -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (292 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (197 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -6.5

CloseWAKE -3.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 3.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 28–12; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points went over 37.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 4.1; 53.2 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Very close	MICH vs MSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	O39
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	RUTG vs UCLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.25	32–35	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	3-3
WAKE WWWLW	6-3	67%	3-2	2-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OUUUU	2-7	22%	4-5
WAKE OOUUU	4-5	44%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–41.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
WAKE	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNC 1–0 WAKE UNC leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Wake Forest 24 @ North Carolina 31	UNC -10.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+2.3 →−4.8▼ 7.1#83

WAKE−4.6 →+1.3▲ 5.9#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNC

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#118

Offense

Even

#112

#42

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#14

−0.3 #104

Turnovers

WAKE better ▶

0.0 #69

59 plays #136

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	UNC off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #123	20.3 #31	WAKE
Yards / play	5.00 #117	4.55 #11	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	−0.08 #8	WAKE
Success rate	37% #119	33% #7	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	WAKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #99	21.3 #38	UNC
Yards / play	5.41 #91	4.77 #20	UNC
PPA / play	−0.02 #128	+0.10 #72	UNC
Success rate	36% #129	39% #39	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.8 #96	4.0 #132	8.8 #124	4.6 #105	5.4 #99	10.0 #113
WAKE allowed	3.7 #37	4.0 #9	7.7 #12	6.2 #97	5.7 #48	11.9 #66

WAKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.0 #45	8.3 #76	15.3 #64	4.4 #107	2.9 #132	7.3 #130
UNC allowed	7.7 #115	5.4 #29	13.1 #74	3.9 #30	3.6 #11	7.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.