Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Pittsburgh

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Notre Dame

7-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

7-2 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

ND -12.5

✓ ND W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 33–20 PITT

✓ ND (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -11.5

CloseND -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -11.5

1 → ND

CloseND -12.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -11.5 · closed ND -12.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -14

model ND -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 41% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (241 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -11.5

CloseND -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 12.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 37–15; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 12.4; 54 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ LSU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	31–32	L	O56.5
Very close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-12	24–20	L	U52
Close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	ORE @ WIS 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	16–13	L	U49.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND LWLLW	4-5	44%	1-2	4-5
PITT WWWWW	7-2	78%	4-1	1-1

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UUUUO	5-4	56%	7-2
PITT OOUOO	8-1	89%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
PITT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ND 52–21 PITT (1 tied) ND leads · 74 games since 1909 · ND has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Pittsburgh 7 @ Notre Dame 58	ND -21	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+21.6 →+23.5▲ 1.9#4

PITT+2.5 →+8.7▲ 6.2#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

PITT

Offense

◀ ND better

#48

#27

Defense

Even

#20

+1.1 #4

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.1 #83

63 plays #110

Pace

PITT faster ▶

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #9	21.8 #46	ND
Yards / play	7.35 #3	4.67 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #9	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	49% #13	32% #5	Even

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #6	18.8 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #42	5.03 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	0.00 #26	ND
Success rate	41% #93	39% #31	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ND scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.7 #30	12.2 #12	19.9 #18	10.7 #5	8.1 #38	18.8 #9
PITT allowed	3.4 #33	7.9 #81	11.3 #49	2.2 #8	7.4 #99	9.7 #41

PITT scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.8 #18	13.7 #4	22.4 #7	9.4 #11	7.8 #47	17.2 #18
ND allowed	3.0 #25	10.6 #118	13.6 #79	2.7 #12	2.6 #3	5.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.