Navy @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff39°F8 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

7-1 · Power #64

final

Final

Notre Dame

6-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -30.5

✓ ND W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 12–42 ND

✓ ND (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -30.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -24.5

6 → ND

CloseND -30.5

6 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -24.5 · closed ND -30.5 · moved 6 toward NDmodel ND -30

model ND -30

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–31.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 45% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (144 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -30.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 30.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 99%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 35.4 against an average line of 30; 53.8 points a game (usually 56). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Loose	OSU vs MSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-32	38–3	W	U48.25
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	TA&M vs USU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-34.5	44–22	L	O57.5
Loose	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-33	62–0	W	O60
Loose	TENN vs MSST 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.5	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	OSU vs WKU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-29.5	63–10	W	O64.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	0-1
ND WLWLL	3-5	38%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY UOOOU	6-2	75%	7-1
ND OUUUU	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 544 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
ND	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NAVY 0–2 ND ND leads · 2 games since 2023 · ND has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Notre Dame 51 @ Navy 14	ND -14.5	ND W
Aug 26 2023	Navy 3 @ Notre Dame 42	ND -20	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →−1.6▼ 2.8#72

ND+21.6 →+23.0▲ 1.4#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NAVY

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#15

#88

Defense

ND better ▶

#33

+0.1 #59

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.3 #4

62 plays #121

Pace

ND faster ▶

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #25	19.9 #26	Even
Yards / play	7.47 #2	5.12 #39	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.34 #5	0.00 #27	NAVY
Success rate	53% #4	39% #41	NAVY

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #14	24.0 #63	ND
Yards / play	7.18 #8	5.73 #90	ND
PPA / play	+0.26 #21	+0.15 #100	ND
Success rate	49% #15	44% #97	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.4 #38	10.4 #38	17.8 #33	7.4 #37	9.6 #19	17.0 #20
ND allowed	3.4 #33	10.6 #123	14.0 #82	3.0 #17	2.9 #4	5.9 #7

ND scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.8 #31	12.0 #12	19.8 #20	9.4 #11	8.3 #40	17.6 #16
NAVY allowed	7.4 #111	5.8 #35	13.1 #77	3.9 #30	7.0 #81	10.9 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.