Charlotte @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

1-7 · Power #134

final

Final

East Carolina

5-3 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -29.5

✓ CLT W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 11–41 ECU

✓ ECU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -26.5

CloseECU -29.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -26.5

3 → ECU

CloseECU -29.5

3 pts toward East Carolina

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -26.5 · closed ECU -29.5 · moved 3 toward ECUmodel ECU -31.5

model ECU -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 28.5–30.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (216 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -26.5

CloseECU -29.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 29.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 48–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 36.8 against an average line of 27.4; 61.8 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Very close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Close	USF vs CLT 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & total	-28	54–26	P	O54.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	BOIS vs USU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-28	62–30	W	O66.5
Close	WKU vs FIU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-31	73–0	W	O65.5
Close	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-27	48–24	L	O57.25
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Loose	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-24	32–15	L	U54
Loose	TULN vs TEM 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & rest	-25.5	52–6	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LWWLL	3-5	38%	2-0	2-5
ECU LWLLW	5-3	63%	2-2	4-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT OOUOO	5-2	71%	1-7
ECU UUUOO	3-5	38%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 493 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%
ECU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CLT 2–0 ECU CLT leads · 2 games since 2023 · CLT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	East Carolina 24 @ Charlotte 55	ECU -8.5	CLT W
Oct 21 2023	Charlotte 10 @ East Carolina 7	ECU -6	CLT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−11.9 →−21.9▼ 10.0#134

ECU−5.0 →+4.4▲ 9.4#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CLT

Longer bar = better

ECU

#124

Offense

ECU better ▶

#44

#131

Defense

ECU better ▶

#25

−1.0 #131

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+0.5 #33

66 plays #79

Pace

ECU faster ▶

79 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	CLT off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #128	16.8 #14	ECU
Yards / play	4.91 #123	4.99 #31	ECU
PPA / play	−0.01 #126	+0.01 #30	ECU
Success rate	38% #119	38% #24	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #46	37.3 #133	ECU
Yards / play	6.04 #49	6.66 #133	ECU
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.21 #120	ECU
Success rate	46% #33	51% #137	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.9 #128	3.8 #131	6.6 #133	3.4 #124	7.5 #55	10.9 #98
ECU allowed	2.9 #19	6.3 #45	9.1 #24	2.9 #16	4.8 #32	7.6 #10

ECU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	9.0 #16	7.0 #92	16.0 #57	7.6 #36	8.5 #37	16.1 #31
CLT allowed	8.5 #125	11.1 #128	19.6 #132	7.8 #118	9.9 #132	17.6 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.