UTSA @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Thu, Nov 6, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTSA

4-4 · Power #65

final

Final

South Florida

6-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -13.5

✓ USF W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 25–38 USF

✓ USF (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -12.5

CloseUSF -13.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -12.5

1 → USF

CloseUSF -13.5

1 pt toward South Florida

Total

Open67.5

▼ 1

Close66.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -12.5 · closed USF -13.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel USF -15

model USF -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 51% (123 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (228 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -12.5

CloseUSF -13.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 13.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 55–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 66.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 13.3; 61.5 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12	47–27	W	O62
Very close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-10	13–40	L	U70
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5
Close	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5
Close	OKST vs TTU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	41–31	L	O65.5
Close	WASH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-14.5	49–39	L	O71.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LLWLW	4-4	50%	1-3	2-1
USF WLWWL	5-3	63%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UUOOO	6-2	75%	4-4
USF OOOUO	5-3	63%	6-2

Went over in Q3. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 2–1 USF UTSA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 17 2023	South Florida 21 @ UTSA 49	UTSA -14.5	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA−2.5 →−1.5▲ 1.0#70

USF−3.9 →+9.4▲ 13.3#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UTSA

Longer bar = better

USF

#46

Offense

USF better ▶

#22

#94

Defense

USF better ▶

#43

+0.5 #37

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.8 #21

66 plays #83

Pace

USF faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #34	24.4 #72	UTSA
Yards / play	6.12 #42	5.13 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	−0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	43% #67	39% #37	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #6	30.3 #110	USF
Yards / play	6.71 #19	5.95 #104	USF
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	+0.19 #113	USF
Success rate	45% #37	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.3 #47	12.1 #12	19.4 #21	9.4 #12	5.3 #100	14.6 #42
USF allowed	6.0 #84	6.4 #50	12.4 #71	3.4 #25	8.6 #120	12.0 #71

USF scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.6 #36	10.1 #39	17.8 #34	12.9 #2	9.8 #19	22.6 #1
UTSA allowed	4.8 #53	6.8 #61	11.5 #56	10.9 #135	7.9 #106	18.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.