Tulane @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Thu, Oct 30, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tulane

6-1 · Power #57

final

Final

UTSA

3-4 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -5.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 30–25 UTSA

✗ TULN (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -4.5

CloseTULN -5.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -4.5

1 → TULN

CloseTULN -5.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -4.5 · closed TULN -5.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel TULN -5

model TULN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 49% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (217 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -4.5

CloseTULN -5.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 5.5-point road favorite at UTSA, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 48–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 5.1; 61.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	CAL @ WAKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	46–36	W	O55
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Very close	DUKE @ WAKE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	23–17	W	U53
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2	42–28	W	O52
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLWWL	4-3	57%	1-2	3-2
UTSA WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; UTSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OUUUU	2-5	29%	6-1
UTSA OUUOO	5-2	71%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 519 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UTSA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 1–0 UTSA TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	UTSA 16 @ Tulane 29	TULN -3.5	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+4.0▼ 1.1#53

UTSA−2.5 →−3.0▼ 0.5#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TULN

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#56

Offense

Even

#58

#66

Defense

◀ TULN better

#90

+0.7 #26

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

0.0 #74

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ TULN faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #82	30.9 #114	TULN
Yards / play	6.00 #51	5.80 #98	TULN
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.20 #116	TULN
Success rate	45% #42	39% #33	Even

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #45	22.3 #52	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #59	5.47 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	42% #82	44% #96	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	6.4 #65	9.3 #58	15.7 #62	3.9 #119	6.3 #77	10.1 #108
UTSA allowed	4.6 #50	6.9 #65	11.4 #57	11.4 #136	8.0 #104	19.4 #132

UTSA scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.9 #56	10.9 #34	17.7 #38	9.7 #11	4.6 #116	14.3 #48
TULN allowed	4.9 #60	4.6 #14	9.4 #30	4.3 #46	8.6 #119	12.9 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.