Navy @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

7-0 · Power #64

final

Final

North Texas

7-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -6.5

✓ UNT W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 29–36 UNT

✓ UNT (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -6.5

Total63.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -5.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -6.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open63.5

▲ 5

Close68.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -5.5 · closed UNT -6.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -11

model UNT -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (206 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -6.5

Total63.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 6.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 68.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 6.4; 68.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	48–27	W	O70
Close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Close	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5
Close	UNT vs USF 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-2.5	36–63	L	O68.5
Close	TCU vs OKST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	43–40	L	O70
Close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Close	ORE vs WASH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-12	34–37	L	U74
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	17–23	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-1	—
UNT WWLWW	6-2	75%	4-1	6-2

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OUOOO	6-1	86%	7-0
UNT OUOOO	6-2	75%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 44% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	10-0 100%	4-5 44%	8-2 80%
UNT	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NAVY 2–1 UNT NAVY leads · 3 games since 2007 · UNT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	North Texas 24 @ Navy 27	NAVY -5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →−0.7▼ 1.9#69

UNT−6.2 →+6.2▲ 12.4#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NAVY

Longer bar = better

UNT

Offense

Even

#13

#74

Defense

UNT better ▶

#59

+0.6 #35

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

+0.9 #18

63 plays #115

Pace

UNT faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #16	25.0 #77	NAVY
Yards / play	7.57 #2	5.20 #47	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.38 #3	+0.02 #32	NAVY
Success rate	53% #5	42% #81	NAVY

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	46.1 #1	23.0 #55	UNT
Yards / play	6.85 #17	5.66 #84	UNT
PPA / play	+0.29 #13	+0.13 #84	UNT
Success rate	48% #19	41% #73	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.4 #24	10.4 #39	18.9 #30	7.4 #38	11.0 #6	18.4 #13
UNT allowed	5.1 #64	6.5 #57	11.6 #58	6.9 #102	6.1 #62	13.0 #90

UNT scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	11.6 #5	12.1 #14	23.8 #6	11.1 #5	9.6 #21	20.8 #4
NAVY allowed	6.4 #93	5.1 #27	11.6 #57	3.4 #30	8.0 #105	11.4 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.