North Texas @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

8-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

UAB

3-6 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

UNT -17.5

✓ UNT W

Total

69.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 42–24 UAB

✓ UNT (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -17.5

CloseUNT -17.5

Total70.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -17.5

no move

CloseUNT -17.5

No change since the open

Total

Open70.5

▼ 1

Close69.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -17.5 · unchangedmodel UNT -19

model UNT -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 15.5–19.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -17.5

CloseUNT -17.5

Total70.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 17.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 53–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 69.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 16.1; 67.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Close	TXST @ ARST 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	30–31	L	U63.5
Close	SMU @ USF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-17.5	41–23	W	U72.5
Close	UNLV @ USU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-18.5	50–34	L	O67
Close	WKU @ CLT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-14.5	59–7	W	U72.5
Close	MEM @ TEM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	45–21	W	O64.25
Close	USC @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-14	45–37	L	O74
Loose	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Loose	MEM @ FAU 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-14	55–26	W	O62.5
Loose	BOIS @ HAW 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-21	28–7	P	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLWWW	7-2	78%	2-1	7-2
UAB LLWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	3-4

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UOOOU	6-3	67%	8-1
UAB UOUUU	4-5	44%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 65.5–73.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
UAB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 1–0 UAB UNT leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	UAB 42 @ North Texas 45	UNT -2	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+6.4▲ 12.6#47

UAB−11.1 →−13.2▼ 2.1#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNT

Longer bar = better

UAB

#10

Offense

◀ UNT better

#70

#63

Defense

◀ UNT better

#129

+1.1 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−0.8 #122

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ UNT faster

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	44.4 #2	37.1 #132	UNT
Yards / play	6.77 #17	6.13 #117	UNT
PPA / play	+0.29 #10	+0.28 #135	UNT
Success rate	50% #12	48% #132	UNT

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #72	24.1 #69	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #44	5.34 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.02 #35	UNT
Success rate	43% #68	43% #89	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	11.9 #3	11.9 #10	23.8 #3	10.7 #4	8.6 #32	19.2 #7
UAB allowed	11.2 #136	11.4 #130	22.7 #136	8.6 #127	5.9 #57	14.4 #112

UAB scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.0 #90	9.9 #47	14.9 #70	6.7 #56	5.6 #93	12.2 #78
UNT allowed	4.6 #49	6.9 #63	11.4 #51	6.9 #107	5.4 #45	12.3 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.