UTEP @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

2-7 · Power #131

final

Final

Missouri State

6-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

MOST -7.5

✓ MOST W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 19–27 MOST

✓ MOST (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -4.5

CloseMOST -7.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -4.5

3 → MOST

CloseMOST -7.5

3 pts toward Missouri State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -4.5 · closed MOST -7.5 · moved 3 toward MOSTmodel MOST -6.5

model MOST -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (190 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -4.5

CloseMOST -7.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 7.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 38–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 7.5; 52.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	AFA vs HAW 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	35–44	L	O52.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	10–23	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-5
MOST LLWWW	6-3	67%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; MOST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UUOUO	4-5	44%	2-7
MOST UUUUU	1-8	11%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 549 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MOST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−15.5▲ 0.4#125

MOST−21.0 →−12.3▲ 8.7#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTEP

Longer bar = better

MOST

#125

Offense

MOST better ▶

#89

#41

Defense

◀ UTEP better

#97

−0.9 #125

Turnovers

MOST better ▶

+0.3 #41

66 plays #84

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

65 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: MOST defense

	UTEP off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #111	25.9 #81	MOST
Yards / play	5.04 #113	5.82 #96	Even
PPA / play	−0.14 #137	+0.13 #91	MOST
Success rate	32% #137	45% #119	Even

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	MOST off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #103	25.8 #79	UTEP
Yards / play	5.70 #67	5.07 #37	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.12 #67	−0.01 #23	UTEP
Success rate	38% #117	38% #25	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.9 #115	5.6 #113	9.4 #117	4.6 #102	7.6 #51	12.1 #79
MOST allowed	3.4 #34	10.7 #122	14.1 #85	4.2 #39	7.6 #107	11.8 #64

MOST scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.3 #85	6.7 #98	12.0 #100	5.7 #74	4.1 #125	9.8 #113
UTEP allowed	8.4 #125	6.1 #40	14.6 #90	5.2 #62	6.0 #57	11.2 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.