Missouri State @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

7-3 · Power #112

final

Final

Kennesaw State

7-3 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENN -6.5

✓ KENN W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 22–29 KENN

✓ KENN (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -6.5

CloseKENN -6.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -6.5

no move

CloseKENN -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

▼ 4

Close54.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -6.5 · unchangedmodel KENN -6

model KENN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (230 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -6.5

CloseKENN -6.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as a 6.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 41–34; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 5.6; 50.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–23	L	U52.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Very close	CSU vs USU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	42–37	L	O57
Very close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	24–31	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWWWW	7-3	70%	3-2	3-2
KENN WWWLL	6-4	60%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: MOST away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UUUUO	2-8	20%	7-3
KENN UOUUO	3-7	30%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 558 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
KENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MOST 1–2 KENN KENN leads · 3 games since 2019 · MOST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−21.0 →−11.4▲ 9.6#111

KENN−24.1 →−8.9▲ 15.2#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MOST

Longer bar = better

KENN

#84

Offense

Even

#73

#88

Defense

KENN better ▶

#54

+0.3 #44

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

−0.5 #114

66 plays #74

Pace

KENN faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: KENN defense

	MOST off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #91	22.5 #49	KENN
Yards / play	5.68 #67	5.47 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #59	+0.06 #56	Even
Success rate	38% #117	40% #48	KENN

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #75	25.7 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #59	5.66 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #74	+0.12 #84	Even
Success rate	42% #83	44% #109	KENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.8 #74	7.4 #87	13.2 #84	5.1 #84	5.1 #108	10.2 #107
KENN allowed	4.5 #49	6.0 #33	10.5 #33	4.7 #45	7.3 #98	12.0 #69

KENN scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	10.0 #8	4.9 #120	14.9 #68	5.4 #79	5.7 #92	11.1 #92
MOST allowed	3.1 #27	10.3 #118	13.4 #80	5.5 #68	6.8 #78	12.3 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.