Western Kentucky @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:45 PM ESTWeek 13 · at LSU

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

8-2 · Power #94

final

Final

LSU

6-4 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -25.5

✓ WKU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 14–39 LSU

✓ LSU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -22.5

CloseLSU -25.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -22.5

3 → LSU

CloseLSU -25.5

3 pts toward LSU

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -22.5 · closed LSU -25.5 · moved 3 toward LSUmodel LSU -25.5 matches the line

model LSU -25.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 49% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (240 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -22.5

CloseLSU -25.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 25.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 13–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.4 against an average line of 25.2; 55.4 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Very close	PSU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-28	46–10	W	O55
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-25	48–14	W	O51.5
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	AUB vs USA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-26.5	31–15	L	U56
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	LOU vs BC 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-25.5	38–24	L	O54.5
Close	TENN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	45–14	W	P59
Close	AUB vs ULM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-24.5	48–14	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WLWWW	8-2	80%	3-1	2-1
LSU WLLLL	3-7	30%	2-4	2-3

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UUOUO	5-5	50%	8-2
LSU UOOUU	3-7	30%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
LSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−9.2▼ 0.9#101

LSU+15.7 →+11.7▼ 4.0#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WKU

Longer bar = better

LSU

#42

Offense

◀ WKU better

#93

#55

Defense

LSU better ▶

#36

−0.4 #109

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.6 #25

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ WKU faster

64 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #47	19.3 #21	LSU
Yards / play	6.10 #39	5.19 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	+0.03 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #36	40% #49	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	LSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #100	23.1 #55	WKU
Yards / play	5.44 #88	5.70 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #78	+0.08 #68	Even
Success rate	40% #104	37% #20	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	5.1 #87	10.2 #40	15.3 #61	7.6 #35	7.6 #47	15.2 #37
LSU allowed	5.4 #69	5.2 #21	10.6 #36	5.3 #62	3.4 #12	8.7 #18

LSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.4 #126	9.4 #55	12.8 #92	5.2 #86	5.6 #98	10.8 #100
WKU allowed	5.6 #73	6.9 #57	12.5 #67	6.7 #108	3.2 #7	9.9 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.