Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F15 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-8 · Power #128

final

Final

Western Kentucky

7-2 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -13.5

✓ WKU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 19–33 WKU

✓ WKU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -13.5

CloseWKU -13.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -13.5

no move

CloseWKU -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 5

Close51.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -13.5 · unchangedmodel WKU -12.5

model WKU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 52% (126 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -13.5

CloseWKU -13.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 13.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 42–26; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 13.1; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT vs RICE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	21–17	L	U57.25
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12	23–22	L	U55
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	17–14	L	U49
Close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Close	WMU vs AKR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	34–24	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LWWWL	4-5	44%	2-2	4-3
WKU WWLWW	7-2	78%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUOUO	4-5	44%	1-8
WKU UUUOU	4-5	44%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 626 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WKU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MTSU 0–2 WKU WKU leads · 2 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Western Kentucky 49 @ Middle Tennessee 21	WKU -10.5	WKU W
Sep 28 2023	Middle Tennessee 10 @ Western Kentucky 31	WKU -6.5	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−19.1▼ 1.1#132

WKU−8.3 →−10.0▼ 1.7#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MTSU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#110

Offense

WKU better ▶

#57

#107

Defense

WKU better ▶

#51

−0.2 #95

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #103

67 plays #59

Pace

WKU faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	MTSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #119	22.8 #59	WKU
Yards / play	4.95 #119	5.45 #66	WKU
PPA / play	0.00 #117	+0.07 #60	WKU
Success rate	42% #83	37% #18	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #56	32.0 #121	WKU
Yards / play	5.84 #59	5.70 #86	WKU
PPA / play	+0.13 #62	+0.19 #118	WKU
Success rate	44% #51	44% #104	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.6 #79	5.2 #117	10.8 #110	4.1 #108	5.2 #103	9.3 #117
WKU allowed	6.2 #92	6.6 #49	12.8 #71	6.0 #88	3.2 #8	9.2 #29

WKU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	4.9 #94	9.8 #47	14.7 #71	7.7 #32	6.9 #60	14.6 #46
MTSU allowed	7.0 #107	10.6 #120	17.6 #125	4.4 #42	10.0 #133	14.4 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.