Florida International @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

3-5 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-7 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

MTSU -1.5

✓ FIU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 24–25 MTSU

✗ MTSU (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -1.5

CloseMTSU -1.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -1.5

3 → MTSU

CloseMTSU -1.5

3 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -1.5 · closed MTSU -1.5 · moved 3 toward MTSUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (178 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (216 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -1.5

CloseMTSU -1.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 56–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 2.5; 58.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs CCU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-0.5	27–48	L	O53
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	ULM vs TXST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	31–30	L	O52.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU LLWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	2-3
MTSU LLWWW	4-4	50%	2-2	0-1

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UOUOU	3-5	38%	3-5
MTSU OUUOU	3-5	38%	1-7

Went over in Q3. Of 593 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MTSU	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FIU 1–1 MTSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · FIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Middle Tennessee 24 @ Florida International 35	FIU -9.5	FIU W
Nov 11 2023	Florida International 6 @ Middle Tennessee 40	MTSU -10.5	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−14.6▼ 3.2#121

MTSU−18.0 →−17.7▲ 0.3#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FIU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#101

Offense

Even

#112

#90

Defense

Even

#96

−0.4 #105

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

−0.1 #87

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ FIU faster

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #106	29.0 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #80	5.65 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #109	+0.17 #104	Even
Success rate	40% #109	44% #100	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	MTSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #124	29.9 #106	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #118	6.23 #123	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.12 #85	FIU
Success rate	41% #91	40% #44	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.1 #91	7.6 #81	12.8 #87	5.0 #92	4.5 #117	9.5 #112
MTSU allowed	7.9 #116	9.3 #103	17.1 #122	3.4 #26	8.5 #119	11.9 #70

MTSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.4 #85	4.6 #127	10.0 #116	3.8 #120	5.1 #103	8.9 #120
FIU allowed	7.3 #105	9.3 #103	16.5 #115	6.0 #83	7.4 #95	13.4 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.