Missouri State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

5-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

Liberty

4-4 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

LIB -7.5

✓ MOST W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 22–29 LIB

✗ LIB (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -7.5

CloseLIB -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -7.5

no move

CloseLIB -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -7.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -7.5 matches the line

model LIB -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (180 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -7.5

CloseLIB -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 7.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 7.2; 57.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Very close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Very close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–19	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST WLLWW	5-3	63%	2-2	2-2
LIB LWWLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: MOST away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UUUUU	1-7	13%	5-3
LIB UUUOO	3-5	38%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MOST 1–0 LIB MOST leads · 1 game since 2025 · MOST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−21.0 →−13.1▲ 7.9#116

LIB−5.7 →−9.3▼ 3.6#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MOST

Longer bar = better

LIB

#91

Offense

Even

#82

#99

Defense

LIB better ▶

#62

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

0.0 #73

66 plays #85

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MOST off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #101	22.6 #54	LIB
Yards / play	5.68 #70	5.47 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #71	+0.09 #63	Even
Success rate	38% #122	41% #59	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #93	27.0 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #76	5.93 #100	LIB
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.14 #92	Even
Success rate	43% #66	45% #116	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	6.0 #71	7.5 #87	13.5 #82	5.5 #79	2.9 #133	8.4 #125
LIB allowed	2.0 #5	7.1 #70	9.1 #23	5.8 #78	7.8 #108	13.5 #98

LIB scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	3.4 #124	7.6 #83	11.0 #109	5.5 #79	7.6 #52	13.1 #63
MOST allowed	3.0 #22	11.6 #131	14.6 #88	4.8 #49	7.6 #105	12.4 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.