Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

6-2 · Power #97

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

3-5 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

KENN -11.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 30–20 NMSU

✓ KENN (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -7.5

CloseKENN -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -7.5

4 → KENN

CloseKENN -11.5

4 pts toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -7.5 · closed KENN -11.5 · moved 4 toward KENNmodel KENN -5

model KENN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 46% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (143 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -7.5

CloseKENN -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as an 11.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 11.1; 51.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	29–28	L	O54.5
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7	27–44	L	O55.5
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	UNLV @ UNM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	56–14	W	O58
Close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	BGSU @ CMU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-15.5	23–13	L	U48.5
Close	M-OH @ AKR 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	20–7	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WWWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	3-1
NMSU LWWLL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: KENN away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UUUOU	2-6	25%	6-2
NMSU OUOUU	3-5	38%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
NMSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−24.1 →−8.9▲ 15.2#100

NMSU−21.1 →−18.4▲ 2.7#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

KENN

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#79

Offense

◀ KENN better

#121

#47

Defense

◀ KENN better

#62

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

+0.5 #31

65 plays #94

Pace

◀ KENN faster

64 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #78	25.4 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #66	5.40 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.02 #34	NMSU
Success rate	41% #97	42% #71	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: KENN defense

	NMSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #112	21.1 #37	KENN
Yards / play	4.74 #127	5.45 #69	KENN
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.04 #39	KENN
Success rate	36% #127	39% #42	KENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	9.5 #10	4.9 #124	14.4 #73	6.4 #60	5.5 #96	11.9 #86
NMSU allowed	3.8 #38	7.3 #73	11.0 #43	6.0 #84	7.5 #99	13.5 #97

NMSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.4 #132	6.6 #98	9.0 #122	3.4 #125	9.0 #25	12.4 #78
KENN allowed	4.8 #52	4.8 #13	9.5 #26	5.5 #70	6.1 #65	11.6 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.