New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

3-4 · Power #129

final

Final

Western Kentucky

6-2 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -7.5

✓ WKU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 24–32 WKU

✓ WKU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -9.5

CloseWKU -7.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -9.5

2 → NMSU

CloseWKU -7.5

2 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -9.5 · closed WKU -7.5 · moved 2 toward NMSUmodel WKU -11

model WKU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (176 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -9.5

CloseWKU -7.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 35–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 7.7; 50.8 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Very close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Very close	DEL vs MTSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–28	L	O55.5
Very close	TXST vs TROY 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	41–48	L	O53.5
Very close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	31–19	W	U57
Close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6	18–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	3-3
WKU WWWLW	6-2	75%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOUOU	3-4	43%	3-4
WKU UUUUO	4-4	50%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WKU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NMSU 1–1 WKU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Western Kentucky 41 @ New Mexico State 28	WKU -18	NMSU W
Nov 11 2023	New Mexico State 38 @ Western Kentucky 29	WKU -4.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−17.9▲ 3.2#131

WKU−8.3 →−10.7▼ 2.4#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NMSU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#115

Offense

WKU better ▶

#60

#55

Defense

Even

#64

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−0.3 #93

63 plays #113

Pace

WKU faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	NMSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #107	23.6 #62	WKU
Yards / play	5.05 #114	5.77 #93	WKU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.10 #71	WKU
Success rate	38% #122	38% #30	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #62	24.0 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #59	5.39 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #56	+0.02 #34	NMSU
Success rate	44% #61	41% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.3 #133	7.1 #92	9.4 #120	3.4 #122	9.3 #24	12.7 #70
WKU allowed	6.6 #98	7.0 #68	13.6 #78	6.4 #93	2.8 #5	9.1 #31

WKU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	5.5 #81	9.3 #61	14.8 #70	6.9 #51	6.9 #67	13.8 #59
NMSU allowed	4.3 #46	6.3 #50	10.6 #42	4.9 #59	7.6 #98	12.4 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.