Florida International @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Wed, Oct 29, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F13 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida International

3-4 · Power #109

final

Final

Missouri State

4-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

MOST -3.5

✓ MOST W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 21–25 MOST

✓ MOST (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -3.5

CloseMOST -3.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -3.5

no move

CloseMOST -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -3.5 · unchangedmodel MOST -5.5

model MOST -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (270 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -3.5

CloseMOST -3.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 3.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 28–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 3.5; 52.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	25–24	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WLLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	2-2
MOST WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; MOST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OUOUO	3-4	43%	3-4
MOST UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MOSTlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−14.4▼ 3.0#122

MOST−21.0 →−13.1▲ 7.9#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FIU

Longer bar = better

MOST

#99

Offense

Even

#92

#95

Defense

Even

#107

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

MOST better ▶

+0.1 #61

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ FIU faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #104	27.9 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #71	6.10 #114	FIU
PPA / play	+0.04 #114	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	40% #105	47% #125	Even

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #109	30.1 #109	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #70	6.29 #124	MOST
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.12 #82	Even
Success rate	39% #114	41% #66	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	4.9 #91	7.7 #85	12.6 #95	5.7 #73	4.1 #118	9.9 #110
MOST allowed	2.4 #18	12.3 #133	14.7 #91	5.4 #71	7.7 #100	13.1 #94

MOST scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.9 #75	7.6 #90	13.4 #86	5.3 #81	2.3 #133	7.6 #129
FIU allowed	7.3 #108	9.6 #110	16.9 #117	5.9 #82	7.4 #92	13.3 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.