James Madison @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

James Madison

6-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

3-4 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

JMU -7.5

✓ JMU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 30–24 TXST

✓ JMU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -6.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total59.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -6.5

1 → JMU

CloseJMU -7.5

1 pt toward James Madison

Total

Open59.5

▼ 4

Close55.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -6.5 · closed JMU -7.5 · moved 1 toward JMUmodel JMU -3.5

model JMU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 51% (128 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -6.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total59.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 7.5-point road favorite at TXST, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 52–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 6.4; 54.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Very close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	58–25	W	O55
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	23–10	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWLLW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2
TXST LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; TXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
TXST UUUOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 496 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
TXST	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →+4.9▲ 7.1#50

TXST+1.6 →−1.2▼ 2.8#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JMU

Longer bar = better

TXST

#46

Offense

TXST better ▶

#26

#10

Defense

◀ JMU better

#104

−0.1 #87

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−0.7 #119

74 plays #12

Pace

Even

73 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #44	31.3 #118	JMU
Yards / play	5.86 #60	5.69 #86	JMU
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	+0.18 #108	JMU
Success rate	46% #33	44% #104	JMU

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #24	15.6 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.71 #21	4.32 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	−0.03 #18	Even
Success rate	45% #41	29% #1	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	6.4 #64	8.0 #78	14.4 #74	9.4 #12	8.4 #42	17.9 #17
TXST allowed	4.3 #46	9.1 #102	13.4 #77	5.9 #83	9.1 #125	15.0 #120

TXST scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	9.7 #13	9.1 #62	18.9 #28	6.3 #64	9.6 #23	15.9 #36
JMU allowed	4.3 #46	6.3 #50	10.6 #44	3.0 #23	2.0 #2	5.0 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.