James Madison @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

7-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Marshall

4-4 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

JMU -13.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 32–19 MRSH

✓ JMU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -12.5

CloseJMU -13.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -12.5

1 → JMU

CloseJMU -13.5

1 pt toward James Madison

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -12.5 · closed JMU -13.5 · moved 1 toward JMUmodel JMU -12.5

model JMU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 46% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (229 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -12.5

CloseJMU -13.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 13.5-point road favorite at MRSH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 35–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 12.6; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	29–27	L	O50.5
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Close	CAL @ SDSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	0–34	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WLLWW	6-2	75%	3-1	5-2
MRSH WLWWL	5-3	63%	3-1	3-0

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; MRSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UUUOO	3-5	38%	7-1
MRSH OOOOO	6-2	75%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 576 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MRSH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JMU 1–1 MRSH Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MRSH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Marshall 35 @ James Madison 33	JMU -2.5	MRSH W
Oct 19 2023	James Madison 20 @ Marshall 9	JMU -5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →+7.7▲ 9.9#39

MRSH−1.7 →−5.9▼ 4.2#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JMU

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#34

Offense

◀ JMU better

#60

Defense

◀ JMU better

#86

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+0.6 #27

72 plays #21

Pace

Even

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #28	32.5 #120	JMU
Yards / play	6.14 #39	6.18 #120	JMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.10 #76	JMU
Success rate	46% #31	38% #26	Even

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	MRSH off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #31	16.1 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #83	4.38 #9	JMU
PPA / play	+0.14 #60	−0.06 #13	JMU
Success rate	44% #65	29% #2	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.4 #40	8.8 #67	16.1 #54	10.9 #5	7.8 #48	18.6 #11
MRSH allowed	6.0 #85	8.0 #81	14.0 #81	7.4 #112	8.3 #114	15.6 #123

MRSH scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	8.1 #25	9.8 #48	17.9 #33	6.8 #57	6.6 #73	13.4 #61
JMU allowed	3.8 #37	8.0 #81	11.8 #55	2.6 #15	1.8 #2	4.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.