Southern Miss @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

6-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

5-4 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

USM -6.5

✓ ARST W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 30–24 ARST

✓ USM (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -5.5

CloseUSM -6.5

Total59.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -5.5

1 → USM

CloseUSM -6.5

1 pt toward Southern Miss

Total

Open59.5

▼ 5

Close54.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -5.5 · closed USM -6.5 · moved 1 toward USMmodel USM -2.5

model USM -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (154 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (229 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -5.5

CloseUSM -6.5

Total59.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 6.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 27–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 5.9; 50.3 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	CONN @ UAB 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	31–23	W	P54
Close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	ODU @ APP 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-2.5	20–28	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	5-0
ARST LWWWW	6-3	67%	4-0	4-2

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOUO	5-3	63%	6-2
ARST UUUUU	2-7	22%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ARST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USM 0–2 ARST ARST leads · 2 games since 2023 · ARST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Arkansas State 44 @ Southern Miss 28	ARST -7	ARST W
Sep 23 2023	Southern Miss 37 @ Arkansas State 44	USM -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−18.7 →−5.8▲ 12.9#87

ARST−9.7 →−10.3▼ 0.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USM

Longer bar = better

ARST

#61

Offense

◀ USM better

#96

#44

Defense

◀ USM better

#102

+1.5 #1

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−0.2 #88

69 plays #43

Pace

ARST faster ▶

73 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #40	26.4 #86	USM
Yards / play	5.80 #61	6.16 #118	USM
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.15 #98	USM
Success rate	41% #95	44% #107	Even

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	ARST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #98	24.6 #73	USM
Yards / play	5.07 #110	5.14 #40	USM
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	−0.02 #23	USM
Success rate	42% #81	39% #38	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	7.8 #32	9.4 #57	17.1 #42	7.4 #40	8.5 #36	15.9 #33
ARST allowed	10.3 #133	5.0 #20	15.3 #97	3.9 #36	7.2 #92	11.1 #56

ARST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.1 #69	6.8 #98	12.9 #88	3.3 #125	7.3 #58	10.7 #99
USM allowed	7.6 #111	3.8 #8	11.4 #48	6.6 #101	6.6 #74	13.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.