Texas State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-6 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

7-2 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

USM -3.5

✓ TXST W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 30–33 USM

✗ USM (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -6.5

CloseUSM -3.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -6.5

3 → TXST

CloseUSM -3.5

3 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open64.5

▲ 1

Close65.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -6.5 · closed USM -3.5 · moved 3 toward TXSTmodel USM -1

model USM -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (290 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (196 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -6.5

CloseUSM -3.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 3.5-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 41–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 3.8; 62.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	CIN vs BAY 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–20	W	U68.5
Close	UNLV vs SJSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	31–37	L	O58.25
Close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	BAY vs TCU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	37–34	W	O64
Close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	59–24	W	O65
Close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Close	UL vs USA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-6.5	22–24	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LLLLL	2-7	22%	1-4	1-2
USM WWWWL	6-3	67%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: TXST away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UOOOO	6-3	67%	3-6
USM OOUOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 44% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
USM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TXST 2–0 USM TXST leads · 2 games since 2023 · TXST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Southern Miss 3 @ Texas State 58	TXST -27.5	TXST W
Sep 30 2023	Texas State 50 @ Southern Miss 36	TXST -6.5	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →−3.5▼ 5.1#80

USM−18.7 →−5.1▲ 13.6#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TXST

Longer bar = better

USM

#27

Offense

◀ TXST better

#59

#113

Defense

USM better ▶

#47

−0.8 #124

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.8 #1

71 plays #24

Pace

◀ TXST faster

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #24	24.2 #71	TXST
Yards / play	6.70 #20	5.15 #44	TXST
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	−0.03 #19	Even
Success rate	45% #41	40% #54	Even

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #44	34.8 #131	USM
Yards / play	5.93 #55	5.85 #99	USM
PPA / play	+0.17 #45	+0.20 #120	USM
Success rate	41% #90	44% #102	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.7 #19	10.1 #43	18.8 #26	5.2 #82	9.6 #19	14.8 #42
USM allowed	7.6 #112	3.3 #5	10.9 #43	5.9 #84	7.4 #103	13.3 #94

USM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	8.0 #25	9.1 #59	17.1 #42	6.9 #49	8.3 #35	15.2 #36
TXST allowed	5.7 #74	11.8 #135	17.4 #124	6.9 #107	8.2 #115	15.1 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.