Troy @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Thu, Nov 13, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Troy

6-3 · Power #99

final

Final

Old Dominion

6-3 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

ODU -9.5

✓ ODU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 21–31 ODU

✓ ODU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -10.5

CloseODU -9.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -10.5

1 → TROY

CloseODU -9.5

1 pt toward Troy

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -10.5 · closed ODU -9.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel ODU -13.5

model ODU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 44% (136 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (277 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -10.5

CloseODU -9.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 9.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 33–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 9.5; 48.7 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	SYR vs STAN 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	24–26	L	U56.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Very close	PITT vs UVA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	19–24	L	U57.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	25–9	W	U53
Very close	SYR vs CONN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	31–24	L	O53.5
Very close	TXST vs TROY 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	41–48	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWWWL	7-2	78%	4-0	4-1
ODU WLLLW	5-4	56%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; ODU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OOOOU	5-4	56%	6-3
ODU OOOUU	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
ODU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−7.9▼ 0.8#97

ODU−5.3 →+1.7▲ 7.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TROY

Longer bar = better

ODU

#99

Offense

ODU better ▶

#30

#69

Defense

ODU better ▶

#48

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

◀ TROY better

−0.4 #111

66 plays #80

Pace

◀ TROY faster

65 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	TROY off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #75	23.4 #63	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #122	5.13 #41	ODU
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	−0.02 #19	ODU
Success rate	40% #104	41% #69	ODU

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: ODU offense

	ODU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #50	24.1 #70	Even
Yards / play	7.00 #11	5.50 #70	ODU
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	+0.10 #74	ODU
Success rate	47% #26	41% #62	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.2 #106	7.1 #92	11.3 #104	4.1 #108	10.0 #10	14.1 #51
ODU allowed	3.1 #27	5.7 #31	8.8 #18	7.2 #110	7.4 #97	14.7 #113

ODU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	9.3 #10	9.6 #52	18.9 #25	6.9 #48	6.1 #81	13.0 #62
TROY allowed	8.1 #121	5.3 #23	13.4 #79	6.7 #103	4.0 #16	10.7 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.