Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Wed, Nov 12, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F4 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

2-7 · Power #124

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

0-9 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

NIU -8.5

✓ NIU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 26–18 MASS

✓ NIU (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -10.5

CloseNIU -8.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -10.5

2 → MASS

CloseNIU -8.5

2 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -10.5 · closed NIU -8.5 · moved 2 toward MASSmodel NIU -10.5

model NIU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (96 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (194 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -10.5

CloseNIU -8.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as an 8.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NIU won 45–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 8.4; 45.7 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Close	BGSU @ KENT 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	21–24	L	U47.5
Close	FIU @ KENN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	26–27	L	O42
Close	AKR @ KENT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	38–17	W	O49
Close	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	37–44	L	O46.5
Close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5
Close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–13	W	U44
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7	13–17	L	U45
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Close	UNM @ NMSU 2022 · Week 7 · close	-7	9–21	L	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LLLWL	2-7	22%	1-4	1-2
MASS LLWLL	2-7	22%	1-3	2-6

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUOUO	2-7	22%	2-7
MASS UUOOO	6-3	67%	0-9

Went over in Q3. Of 318 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
MASS	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NIU 1–0 MASS NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Massachusetts 20 @ Northern Illinois 34	NIU -13.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−15.0▼ 9.7#124

MASS−14.6 →−27.3▼ 12.7#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NIU

Longer bar = better

MASS

#136

Offense

Even

#136

#77

Defense

◀ NIU better

#128

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

◀ NIU better

−0.3 #98

62 plays #122

Pace

Even

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	12.2 #136	36.8 #132	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #135	6.22 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	+0.24 #127	Even
Success rate	32% #137	48% #131	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	MASS off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #137	24.3 #72	NIU
Yards / play	3.87 #137	5.30 #56	NIU
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.14 #94	NIU
Success rate	33% #135	43% #85	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.7 #122	2.7 #135	6.3 #133	2.9 #130	3.0 #131	5.9 #135
MASS allowed	10.3 #134	9.4 #108	19.8 #133	11.1 #136	5.9 #54	17.0 #130

MASS scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.7 #101	4.9 #122	9.6 #117	1.4 #136	0.3 #136	1.8 #136
NIU allowed	3.8 #39	7.6 #76	11.3 #48	5.0 #55	8.0 #111	13.0 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.