Wisconsin @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F15 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

3-6 · Power #63

final

Final

Indiana

10-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -27.5

✓ WIS W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 7–35 IU

✓ IU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -30.5

CloseIU -27.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -30.5

3 → WIS

CloseIU -27.5

3 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -30.5 · closed IU -27.5 · moved 3 toward WISmodel IU -30.5

model IU -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 57% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (195 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -30.5

CloseIU -27.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 27.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 31–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.9 against an average line of 27.8; 46.3 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs WIS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-31.5	21–7	L	U45
Close	ND vs FSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-25.5	52–3	W	O44
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	MIA vs STAN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-28.5	42–7	W	O45.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Close	MIA vs SYR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	38–10	L	O46.5
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WLLWW	4-5	44%	2-1	3-3
IU WLWWL	5-4	56%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUUUU	2-7	22%	3-6
IU UOOOO	7-3	70%	10-0

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
IU	10-0 100%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 0–1 IU IU leads · 1 game since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Wisconsin 14 @ Indiana 20	WIS -7.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.3 →+0.4▼ 4.9#65

IU+13.4 →+25.2▲ 11.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WIS

Longer bar = better

#134

Offense

IU better ▶

#87

Defense

IU better ▶

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.3 #3

60 plays #134

Pace

IU faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	WIS off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	12.6 #136	12.1 #2	IU
Yards / play	4.29 #136	4.62 #14	IU
PPA / play	−0.10 #135	−0.07 #9	IU
Success rate	36% #128	34% #8	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #1	22.3 #54	IU
Yards / play	7.02 #11	5.58 #75	IU
PPA / play	+0.28 #15	+0.15 #96	IU
Success rate	53% #4	46% #123	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.1 #136	1.9 #136	3.0 #136	4.6 #102	5.0 #109	9.6 #115
IU allowed	3.0 #25	3.6 #10	6.6 #8	1.9 #6	3.6 #12	5.5 #6

IU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	10.8 #6	12.6 #8	23.4 #4	12.5 #2	8.6 #30	21.1 #2
WIS allowed	6.4 #96	6.7 #54	13.1 #75	5.0 #56	4.2 #18	9.2 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.