Illinois @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

7-3 · Power #30

final

Final

Wisconsin

3-7 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -8.5

✓ WIS W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 26–18 WIS

✗ ILL (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -9.5

CloseILL -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -9.5

1 → WIS

CloseILL -8.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -9.5 · closed ILL -8.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel ILL -7

model ILL -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 54% (103 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (301 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -9.5

CloseILL -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as an 8.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 27–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 8.2; 42.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Very close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	20–10	W	U51
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Close	FLA @ UK 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	7–38	L	O44.5
Close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	24–8	W	U47
Close	WASH @ WIS 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	10–13	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WLLWW	7-3	70%	2-2	6-0
WIS LLWWW	5-5	50%	2-4	4-3

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OUOUU	5-5	50%	7-3
WIS UUUUU	2-8	20%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WIS	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 0–1 WIS WIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · WIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Wisconsin 25 @ Illinois 21	WIS -3	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+4.1 →+9.3▲ 5.2#28

WIS+5.3 →+0.6▼ 4.7#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ILL

Longer bar = better

WIS

#35

Offense

◀ ILL better

#135

#92

Defense

Even

#92

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

−0.8 #122

64 plays #103

Pace

◀ ILL faster

58 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #41	23.2 #56	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #47	5.65 #75	ILL
PPA / play	+0.19 #36	+0.17 #107	ILL
Success rate	48% #17	47% #129	ILL

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	WIS off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #136	23.9 #64	ILL
Yards / play	4.25 #136	5.48 #60	ILL
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.20 #118	Even
Success rate	35% #132	47% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	5.5 #82	10.6 #25	16.1 #47	8.6 #20	7.5 #52	16.1 #26
WIS allowed	6.5 #92	6.3 #40	12.8 #72	5.9 #80	4.5 #27	10.4 #48

WIS scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.0 #136	2.4 #136	3.4 #136	4.1 #111	4.5 #122	8.6 #125
ILL allowed	5.8 #78	6.7 #53	12.5 #66	4.8 #47	6.6 #69	11.4 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.