Tennessee @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

7-3 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Florida

3-7 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

TENN -3.5

✓ TENN W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 30–27 FLA

✓ TENN (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -3.5

CloseTENN -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -3.5

no move

CloseTENN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -3.5 · unchangedmodel TENN -4

model TENN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (212 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -3.5

CloseTENN -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 3.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 31–11; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 3.1; 52.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–28	P	O55.25
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LLWLL	4-6	40%	1-2	3-5
FLA LLWLW	4-6	40%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUOOU	7-3	70%	7-3
FLA OUUOO	4-6	40%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
FLA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TENN 1–1 FLA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Florida 17 @ Tennessee 23	TENN -13.5	FLA W
Sep 16 2023	Tennessee 16 @ Florida 29	TENN -5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+17.7 →+15.0▼ 2.7#15

FLA+13.1 →+9.2▼ 3.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TENN

Longer bar = better

FLA

Offense

◀ TENN better

#108

#71

Defense

Even

#66

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.2 #97

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ TENN faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	43.4 #2	23.6 #62	TENN
Yards / play	6.78 #16	5.55 #65	TENN
PPA / play	+0.32 #4	+0.12 #80	TENN
Success rate	50% #8	41% #57	TENN

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	FLA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #116	28.9 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #101	5.25 #48	TENN
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.05 #50	TENN
Success rate	41% #94	43% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	14.5 #1	10.4 #31	24.9 #2	10.3 #6	7.2 #59	17.5 #14
FLA allowed	4.8 #59	7.3 #71	12.1 #59	4.0 #30	7.5 #99	11.5 #60

FLA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.1 #41	7.3 #91	14.4 #74	3.7 #116	2.7 #135	6.4 #134
TENN allowed	4.5 #50	9.7 #112	14.2 #89	5.6 #68	8.5 #119	14.1 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.