Florida @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Florida

3-6 · Power #37

final

Final

Ole Miss

9-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -11.5

✓ FLA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 20–32 MISS

✓ MISS (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -13.5

CloseMISS -11.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -13.5

2 → FLA

CloseMISS -11.5

2 pts toward Florida

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -13.5 · closed MISS -11.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel MISS -12.5

model MISS -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 41% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (198 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -13.5

CloseMISS -11.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as an 11.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 12.9; 58.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Very close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WLLWL	3-6	33%	0-4	2-3
MISS LLWWL	6-4	60%	5-2	5-3

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OOUUO	3-6	33%	3-6
MISS UOOUU	5-5	50%	9-1

Went over in Q4. Of 558 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 14–13 MISS (1 tied) FLA leads · 28 games since 1926 · FLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Ole Miss 17 @ Florida 24	MISS -13.5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+13.1 →+9.6▼ 3.5#28

MISS+19.8 →+17.8▼ 2.0#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

FLA

Longer bar = better

MISS

#105

Offense

MISS better ▶

#16

#59

Defense

Even

#48

−0.2 #94

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #99

65 plays #86

Pace

MISS faster ▶

74 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	FLA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #117	19.8 #25	MISS
Yards / play	5.24 #103	5.07 #36	MISS
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.09 #68	MISS
Success rate	42% #84	41% #61	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #11	22.4 #51	MISS
Yards / play	6.61 #20	5.42 #59	MISS
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.10 #78	MISS
Success rate	48% #20	40% #47	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.1 #43	6.2 #103	13.3 #79	4.1 #111	3.0 #132	7.1 #131
MISS allowed	4.1 #42	6.1 #36	10.2 #31	4.9 #53	4.7 #29	9.6 #35

MISS scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	7.5 #33	14.3 #1	21.8 #8	6.8 #51	8.9 #28	15.7 #31
FLA allowed	4.2 #47	7.0 #65	11.2 #47	4.4 #42	6.8 #76	11.2 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.