Oklahoma @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

7-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Alabama

8-1 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

ALA -6.5

✓ OU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 19–26 ALA

✗ ALA (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -7.5

CloseALA -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -7.5

1 → OU

CloseALA -6.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -7.5 · closed ALA -6.5 · moved 1 toward OUmodel ALA -10

model ALA -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (225 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -7.5

CloseALA -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 6.5-point home favorite against OU, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 23–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 67%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 7.4; 49.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	34–17	W	O48
Very close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Very close	LSU vs SC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	20–10	W	U44.5
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	UGA vs TENN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	31–17	W	O47
Close	OSU vs TENN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	42–17	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU LLWLW	5-4	56%	3-0	1-1
ALA WLWLW	6-3	67%	5-0	5-3

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUUOO	2-7	22%	7-2
ALA UOUOU	5-4	56%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
ALA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OU 1–0 ALA OU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Alabama 3 @ Oklahoma 24	ALA -14.5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+11.4 →+15.2▲ 3.8#15

ALA+21.0 →+21.8▲ 0.8#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

ALA

#69

Offense

ALA better ▶

#38

Defense

◀ OU better

#33

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.1 #6

68 plays #51

Pace

Even

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	OU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #64	17.2 #14	ALA
Yards / play	5.50 #85	5.13 #42	ALA
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.02 #33	ALA
Success rate	44% #48	40% #44	Even

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	ALA off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #39	14.1 #8	OU
Yards / play	6.02 #49	4.16 #6	OU
PPA / play	+0.24 #24	−0.03 #18	Even
Success rate	45% #39	32% #3	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.4 #60	9.3 #54	15.8 #55	8.7 #19	4.4 #122	13.1 #59
ALA allowed	2.7 #17	5.2 #24	7.9 #13	5.1 #59	4.2 #19	9.3 #30

ALA scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	7.3 #36	12.6 #8	19.9 #16	4.8 #96	8.1 #38	12.9 #63
OU allowed	2.6 #14	3.6 #8	6.1 #7	4.0 #32	4.0 #16	8.0 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.