Texas @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Texas

7-2 · Power #14

final

Final

Georgia

8-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -3.5

✓ UGA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 21–26 UGA

✓ UGA (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -6.5

3 → TEX

CloseUGA -3.5

3 pts toward Texas

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -6.5 · closed UGA -3.5 · moved 3 toward TEXmodel UGA -8.5

model UGA -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 49% (295 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 3.5-point home favorite against TEX, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 5.1; 61.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Close	WASH vs ILL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	42–25	W	O54.5
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	TENN vs OU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	27–33	L	O55.5
Close	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LWLLL	2-7	22%	0-4	0-1
UGA WWWLW	4-5	44%	2-3	4-5

Venue/role: TEX away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX OUUOO	4-5	44%	7-2
UGA UUOUO	4-5	44%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
UGA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TEX 0–2 UGA UGA leads · 2 games since 2023 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Georgia 22 @ Texas 19	TEX -2.5	UGA W
Oct 19 2024	Georgia 30 @ Texas 15	TEX -4.5	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+23.2 →+16.1▼ 7.1#13

UGA+21.0 →+21.1▲ 0.1#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TEX

Longer bar = better

UGA

#77

Offense

UGA better ▶

#27

#18

Defense

◀ TEX better

#39

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.2 #95

66 plays #73

Pace

UGA faster ▶

73 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	TEX off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #60	19.8 #24	UGA
Yards / play	5.76 #62	4.95 #28	UGA
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	+0.06 #59	UGA
Success rate	40% #103	40% #44	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #29	16.4 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #51	4.68 #16	TEX
PPA / play	+0.25 #20	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	50% #9	38% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.6 #58	7.7 #85	14.2 #74	7.0 #44	7.2 #55	14.2 #48
UGA allowed	6.6 #97	4.9 #14	11.4 #48	4.2 #39	3.8 #12	8.0 #13

UGA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.1 #66	10.2 #40	16.3 #47	9.9 #10	6.6 #72	16.4 #24
TEX allowed	2.2 #8	6.2 #40	8.4 #15	2.2 #8	5.8 #51	8.0 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.