UCLA @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F13 mphgusts 30Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCLA

3-6 · Power #70

final

Final

Ohio State

9-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -32.5

✓ OSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 6–39 OSU

✓ OSU (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -30.5

CloseOSU -32.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -30.5

2 → OSU

CloseOSU -32.5

2 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -30.5 · closed OSU -32.5 · moved 2 toward OSUmodel OSU -34

model OSU -34

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 30.5–34.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 49% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (229 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -30.5

CloseOSU -32.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 32.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 48–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.1 against an average line of 30.4; 46.5 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Close	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5
Close	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Close	MIA vs SYR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-28.5	38–10	L	O46.5
Close	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	ORE vs WIS 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-31.5	21–7	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	3-2
OSU WWWWL	7-2	78%	4-1	7-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUUOO	4-5	44%	3-6
OSU OUUOU	3-6	33%	9-0

Went over in Q3. Of 472 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
OSU	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →+0.2▼ 5.1#66

OSU+26.4 →+27.5▲ 1.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCLA

Longer bar = better

OSU

#80

Offense

OSU better ▶

#115

Defense

OSU better ▶

−0.2 #96

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.6 #26

63 plays #118

Pace

Even

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	UCLA off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #118	7.2 #1	OSU
Yards / play	5.48 #85	3.79 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #65	−0.14 #3	OSU
Success rate	44% #50	35% #11	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #17	30.7 #115	OSU
Yards / play	6.99 #12	5.88 #99	OSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #3	+0.18 #110	OSU
Success rate	55% #1	50% #135	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	2.2 #132	7.6 #88	9.8 #116	5.6 #77	5.1 #106	10.7 #100
OSU allowed	0.7 #1	2.6 #3	3.2 #1	1.8 #4	2.2 #1	4.0 #1

OSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.2 #39	10.7 #26	17.9 #30	8.4 #22	10.0 #11	18.4 #12
UCLA allowed	7.6 #112	9.1 #101	16.7 #114	5.4 #67	8.6 #121	14.0 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.