Syracuse @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

3-6 · Power #92

final

Final

Miami

6-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -28.5

✓ SYR W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 11–39 MIA

✓ MIA (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -27.5

CloseMIA -28.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -27.5

1 → MIA

CloseMIA -28.5

1 pt toward Miami

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -27.5 · closed MIA -28.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -28

model MIA -28

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 58% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (234 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -27.5

CloseMIA -28.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 28.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 38–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 27; 44.7 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5
Very close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Very close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Very close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Very close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-31	33–24	L	O45
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	38–24	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LWLLL	3-6	33%	2-1	2-4
MIA WWLWL	5-3	63%	4-2	4-3

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUUOU	4-5	44%	3-6
MIA UUUOU	3-5	38%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 500 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SYR 1–0 MIA SYR leads · 1 game since 2023 · SYR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Miami 38 @ Syracuse 42	MIA -12.5	SYR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+5.9 →−4.4▼ 10.3#83

MIA+18.0 →+18.8▲ 0.8#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SYR

Longer bar = better

MIA

#107

Offense

MIA better ▶

#39

#115

Defense

MIA better ▶

#11

−0.8 #123

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.5 #32

70 plays #29

Pace

Even

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	SYR off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #97	15.6 #10	MIA
Yards / play	5.27 #100	4.53 #13	MIA
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.08 #8	MIA
Success rate	39% #113	36% #13	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #45	30.8 #113	MIA
Yards / play	6.04 #50	6.14 #115	MIA
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.19 #111	MIA
Success rate	49% #17	46% #121	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.9 #96	7.1 #89	12.0 #97	3.3 #126	7.6 #52	10.9 #97
MIA allowed	3.4 #33	2.5 #2	5.9 #6	2.5 #13	6.5 #71	9.0 #25

MIA scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	7.0 #49	8.5 #75	15.5 #61	8.3 #25	8.5 #37	16.8 #28
SYR allowed	5.9 #83	11.1 #127	17.0 #120	6.9 #105	6.9 #81	13.8 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.