Duke @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff58°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Duke

5-3 · Power #47

final

Final

UConn

6-3 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -7.5

✓ CONN W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 35–27 CONN

✗ DUKE (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -8.5

CloseDUKE -7.5

Total65.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -8.5

1 → CONN

CloseDUKE -7.5

1 pt toward UConn

Total

Open65.5

▼ 3

Close62.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -8.5 · closed DUKE -7.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel DUKE -9

model DUKE -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 51% (133 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (272 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -8.5

CloseDUKE -7.5

Total65.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 7.5-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 6.8; 60 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	14–41	L	U58
Close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–29	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWWLW	4-3	57%	3-1	3-2
CONN WWWLW	6-3	67%	3-1	1-0

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUOUO	6-2	75%	5-3
CONN UOOOU	6-3	67%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DUKE 2–0 CONN DUKE leads · 2 games since 2023 · DUKE has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	UConn 21 @ Duke 26	DUKE -17.5	CONN W
Sep 23 2023	Duke 41 @ UConn 7	DUKE -22	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+6.7▲ 4.8#46

CONN−4.2 →−3.9▲ 0.3#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DUKE

Longer bar = better

CONN

#22

Offense

Even

#27

#102

Defense

CONN better ▶

#77

+0.6 #28

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

+1.1 #7

67 plays #70

Pace

CONN faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #26	23.9 #63	DUKE
Yards / play	6.92 #13	5.39 #63	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	+0.10 #78	DUKE
Success rate	47% #26	44% #102	DUKE

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #15	28.1 #98	CONN
Yards / play	6.72 #19	6.07 #110	CONN
PPA / play	+0.29 #14	+0.18 #108	CONN
Success rate	44% #60	43% #92	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	6.4 #63	11.5 #21	17.9 #34	7.3 #41	10.3 #8	17.5 #16
CONN allowed	3.3 #27	7.6 #75	10.9 #41	2.4 #12	7.7 #106	10.1 #43

CONN scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.7 #32	12.2 #12	19.9 #19	9.4 #10	6.1 #82	15.6 #34
DUKE allowed	7.4 #109	8.5 #93	15.9 #103	5.0 #56	7.3 #92	12.3 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.